Many abandoned their hometowns, which were occupied by government militias and Iranian proxies, like Hezbollah.
Kids who grew up as displaced refugees are now returning home as fighters, Nasr tellsRolling Stone.
For the first time in years, the survival of the Assad regime has been called into doubt.
An anti-government fighter tears down a portrait of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo, after jihadists and their allies entered the northern Syrian city, on Nov. 30, 2024.Mohammed AL-RIFAI/AFP/Getty Images
We are in an absolutely pivotal moment.
Assads power is once more crumbling.
Something will fill that void, and at the moment it looks like HTS.
The situation is very bad here.
I can hear the bullets around us, the contact said.
Its getting very difficult and we are preparing ourselves for the worst.
The worst, in the context of Syria, is difficult to overstate.
But experts say the group is not the Islamic State 2.0.
I would say they are not as bad as others.
There, he sought to corral the Islamic resistance in Iraq and Syria together.
At its peak in 2015, the caliphate controlled almost half of Syria and one-third of Iraq.
The Syrian governments allies in Moscow and Tehran also decided it was time to act.
Russia also saw this as an opportunity to contest U.S.-led interventionism.
At its height, the Russian mission involved perhaps 6,000 military personnel.
That same year saw the defeat of the Islamic State.
The caliph became the focus of an international manhunt.
They quickly began consolidating control over Idlib province.
HTS created the Syrian Salvation Council, a civil government that dismantled or subsumed rival rebel councils and administrations.
Soon, HTS governed nearly 4.5 million inhabitants a number that includes an estimated 1.5 million displaced persons.
Its not the clarity of his vision that has drawn him support from the Syrians who are ideologically aligned.
Its his organizational capacity, notes Cafarella.
He had been hiding in a safe house in Idlib, just across the border from Turkey.
That same year, HTS began a crackdown on jihadists who refused to bend the knee.
The group already required fighters to forswear global jihad and pledge to recognize its legal and military authority.
Al-Jolani is a pragmatist, says Van Ostaeyen.
Hes interested in power.
They have absolutely no interest in attacking the West.
They want to control Syria.
The next step was making that clear to foreign powers.
It also began to publicize its ideology and goals.
Al-Qahtani was assassinated earlier this year,allegedlyby Islamic State operatives.
The split from the Islamic State and from Al Qaeda were incredibly costly internally, Nasr says.
Its not just marketing.
It cost [Al-Qahtani] his life.
The death of al-Qahtani, a prominent voice within the group, left al-Jolani as the groups undisputed leader.
Hes smart, Nasr says.
Despite its focus on Syria, it would be a mistake to view HTS as moderate, Nasr says.
They are Islamist insurgents, and they want to install sharia law.
They are not secular rebels.
Theyre kind of a softer Taliban.
When I was in Idlib I saw women driving and going to university, people smoking and playing music.
Even women and men walking together in the center of town.
It may sound like nothing to us, but understand the hardliners think this is blasphemy.
I visited Christian villages.
Minorities have less rights, but they are not massacred.
Western policy has been to treat Syria as if the civil war has been concluded, Cafarella tellsRolling Stone.
But Assads rule is a house of cards.
That house of cards was previously propped up with Russian air power and Hezbollahs guns.
We are not in 2015 any more.
The Russians used to have 40 aircraft.
Now they have perhaps 10.
The Israelis hit Hezbollah so hard, and the Americans are hitting Irans proxies in the east.
It would be quite surprising to see them able to rebuild.
But he doesnt think Russia is ready to abandon Assad.
Neither does Grajewski, the expert on Russian policy in the Middle East.
There is a difference however, between desire to intervene, and ability to do so.
My question is What price are the Russians willing to pay to maintain their presence?
