International air carriers havesuspendedmany flights to Beirut and Tel Aviv, and the U.S. haswarnedits citizens to leave Lebanon.
I am looking at this as a precursor.
They [the Israelis] have made a decision.
A fire truck in front of a building hit by an Israeli strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs on September 20, 2024.Fadel Itani/AFP/Getty Images
I dont think its over cease-fire talks be damned.
Several civilians, including children, were killed in the two-day operation.
Lebanese officials say at least 31 people died in the series of attacks, with more than 3,500 injured.
It blames Israel, which has not commented on the operation.
[Israel] was intending to deliberately kill 4,000 people in one minute, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallahsaid.
It is an act of war on the Lebanese people.
Over 70,000 have been forced to flee their homes, becoming refugees in their own land.
The strategy was a gradual one of state infiltration, backed by intimidation and assassination.
Iran via Hezbollah now controls Lebanon from behind the scenes.
Its preferable to actually being in charge.
You dont have to be responsible for the bad governance in Beirut.
This leaves the Lebanese people without a meaningful voice in what is happening now.
Iran is more influential over these decisions than the Lebanese state.
Tehran remains the nexus of what is happening in both Lebanon and Gaza.
But it is not accurate to say Hamas and Hezbollah are two sides of the same Iranian coin.
The second category is Hamas, which Iran equips and extensively funds.
They pay attention to Tehran, but there is no strict authority or control.
But Hezbollah is at the top.
They are almost directly controlled by Iran, Murrett says.
In 1983, he was in his ships command center when news spread about the bombing in Beirut.
I remember it like it was yesterday.
A lot of people are very happy that [Ibrahim Aqil] was taken out of the scene.
Hezbollah, too, shows little interest in backing down.
The Lebanon front will not stop before the aggression on Gaza stops.
They telegraphed it in advance.
But solidarity with Hamas is more rhetoric than reality.
Nasrallah plays the card that hes defending Lebanon.
I dont think the Lebanese buy that.
Khatib, the Chatham House analyst, agrees.
They are caught between a rock and a hard place.
The majority of the Lebanese people are against Israel, but they are also against what Hezbollah is doing.
I grew up in Lebanon in the 1980s and 90s.
Its history repeating itself, which it does too often in Lebanon.
Its a cycle that is self-perpetuating.
Every few years, Lebanon seems to go through a cycle of violence.
He has a unique perspective.
There are people who think this [targeting Hezbollah] is a move toward escalation.
Israel is saying We damaged your capacities.
You have a window of opportunity to change course to end the skirmish, he says.
There are reasons to think Hezbollah will seize that opportunity.
I wouldnt want to be the one tasked with trying to make those calls, he says.
Theres a lot of risk here.
The center of gravity is moving north.
But Hezbollah cant stop fighting, either.
At some point the Israelis would be told: Were not supporting this any more.
Khatib believes Washingtons influence over Israel is essential to bringing down the temperature.
They are the only international actor able to influence all parties and stop the fighting.
But Washington does not appear to want this to end.
The Biden administration believes it is keeping the conflict contained amid its final months of governance.
I dont think we have the conditions for a cease-fire.
The U.S. presence will likely need to remain what it is for the foreseeable future, observes Murrett.
