Israel now is pledging a forceful response.
In turn, Iranian state media carried a statement from the military vowing vast destruction if Israel retaliates.
The key question is whether Israel will now carry out large-scale direct strikes on Iran.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses world leaders at the United Nations headquarters on September 27, 2024 in New York City.Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Im interested in how the Israelis respond now.
With the U.S. election looming, they view the Biden administration as a lame duck.
The Israelis may believe they can strike Irans territory, and avoid a major backlash from Washington.
As far as Israel is concerned, that fight is nearly over and it is winning.
Hezbollah has been decapitated, but it has not been destroyed.
And Israel is not letting up the pressure.
In Lebanon, they call it a limited ground operation.
In Ukraine, they call it a Special Military Operation.
That strike was in response to Israels attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria.
By launching hundreds of missiles in a short timeframe, Iran sought to saturate and penetrate Israels defenses.
The extent of damage and number of casualties is unclear, butvideosshow a large number impacting on the ground.
But based on what we know now, the attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective.
Whether or not regional war can be avoided, regional upheaval has already been accomplished.
Its not because as things are often framed the people of Lebanon hate the Jews, Zoughaib tellsRolling Stone.
We get a very bad rap.
But I really think its Israeli society that has mutated.
For the first time in decades, someobserversfind themselves contemplating a political future for Lebanon without Hezbollah.
To Zoughaib, such white savior daydreaming misses the point.
Israel has really done Hezbollah a service, he says.
But I think this will subside.
War might spill over into increased violence between different groups, along the rifts that shape Lebanese society.
It all depends on how protracted the war is going to be.
Clarke from the Soufan Group believes the character of the invasion will determine its outcome.
International opinion will turn against Israel even more.
They lose their advantages if they stay, and get bogged down in counterinsurgency.
But the fractured Syrian resistance lacks the coordination and resources to take advantage of the situation.
The question Im more interested in is whether Israel would expel Hezbollahs forces from southern Syria.
She is watching closely to see if there is any evidence of Israeli ground operations in Syria.
But, she adds, I dont think Israel would benefit from a complete destabilization.
Irans two main tools for responding to Israel are its Axis of Resistance, and its missiles.
Those have been shown to be not effective.
The Axis of Resistance is not as robust as it seemed.
But none of these groups are a replacement for Hezbollah.
They got shellacked, far beyond what any analyst thought could happen.
Even with Iranian help, itll take some time for them to rebuild, Clarke says.
But its a force of 30,000 people.
Theyre part of the social fabric of Lebanon.
Many believed the security failure of Oct. 7 was the beginning of the end for Netanyahu.
But it hasnt worked out that way.
Netanyahu also evidently saw an opportunity to carry the fight against Hezbollah ever deeper into Lebanon.
Now Israels hardliners appear on the brink of accomplishing nearly everything they wanted.
[Netanyahu] simply does not want a two-state solution.
Israel has achieved tactical success in Gaza and against Hezbollah.
But it hasnt solved the bigger problem.
The question is, what is Israels ultimate objective?
At present, none is apparent beyond the fever dream of changing the Middle East.
Will there be a decision to progress with weaponization?
Thats going to be the decisive factor in how this plays out.
